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news Earth Evidence status: Peer reviewed · Hindcast evaluation plus one real-time competition year

Machine learning doubles ECMWF’s AI subseasonal forecast skill, from a low base

Nature study: probabilistic bias correction doubles ECMWF's AI model's week 3 to 4 forecast skill, from 0.03 to about 0.06. What that does and does not mean.

What it does not show "Doubling" takes a skill score from about 0.03 to about 0.06, where 1 is perfect; results rest on ECMWF hindcasts and the chosen evaluation periods, and 7 of the 13…

By Murad Ali Khan 15 min read
Primary sourcesResearch and official data linked in context
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